When markets grow stormy, many investors flee to safe harbor by switching from stocks to fixed income … and back again when they think the coast is clear. By viewing the markets in hindsight, it becomes easier to see why you shouldn’t try to time them like this. Since 1926, bull markets in the S&P 500 Index have lasted longer than bear markets, and delivered price gains that are greater than the bear market losses.
(Click on image to view larger version)
The same has held true for international (EAFE index) and emerging markets:

(Click on images to view larger versions)
Because nobody can predict when the greater gains are going to occur, you have to be there ahead of time to fully benefit from them. Which means the best strategy is to not get out to begin with.
Subscribe to these comments
//
Subscribe to the SensiblePortfolios® Blog Feed















