Blog Entries

The Flipside to Today’s Headline News

Posted June 9th, 2010 by Darrell Armuth

There’s the “above the fold” headlines you notice right away. Then there’s the news that gets buried on the flipside. The real story is often found in the fine print.

For example, the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) just released its May 2010 biannual report on the global economy, in which they said the world economy is recovering faster than expected from the recent recession. I didn’t see that in the headlines, did you?

The OECD, which is comprised of 31 developed economies, increased global economic projected growth rates for 2010 from 3.4 percent to 4.6 percent. Similarly for 2011, they increased projected rates from 3.7 percent to 4.5 percent.

The report noted that projected growth rates were sensitive to the sovereign debt markets and overheated emerging markets, but overall it was cautiously optimistic, citing these highlights:

  1. Global unemployment seems to have peaked, with international trade on the rise and many governments beginning to repair their fiscal positions.
  2. The Asia Pacific region is booming, especially with China’s and India’s rapid industrializations. Latin America is also emerging in relatively good shape.
  3. Australia’s economy has been strong because of rising commodity prices. Their economy has been rising so rapidly that the central bank has raised interest rates six times since October 2009.
  4. Europe is becoming more globally competitive with a weaker Euro.
  5. The International Monetary Fund has expressed confidence in the recovery because of the unprecedented cooperation of the international communities through forums such as the Group of 20.
  6. China is reactivating internal demand and moving away from its export model; while U.S. consumers have started to save more.

Of course the future remains as mysterious as ever, and for all I know projections could again worsen by the time I post this blog. The point is, the best response to mass media headlines, whether giddy or alarmist, is to stick to your chosen investment strategy so you stand the best chance to achieve your personal goals. Understand that financial markets are fairly efficient at pricing in additional news. By the time you read about it, it’s old news to the markets; they’ve already gone on to celebrating or fearing something else. Read the headlines if you wish for entertainment, but please, please, no wagering.